Well, my buddy Jeff had no service at the TD Garden (exhibit A as to why BlackBerries are silly), so we were deprived of live tweeting – a very unfortunate occurrence. I split my picks 2-2 from Thursday’s games, thanks to Louisville housing Michigan State and Marquette playing incredibly poorly.
Today, I’m gonna give you a breakdown (position by position and coaching/intangibles) of the only game that anyone in Central New York cares about – the women’s Sweet 16 matchup between South Carolina and Stanford.
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And by that I mean Ohio State vs. Syracuse.
Point Guard: Aaron Craft (OSU) vs. Scoop Jardine
I think this is the most important matchup in the game – if good Scoop shows up, I think SU has a great chance to win the game. Craft is one of the best defenders in college basketball and a pretty good shooter when he decides he wants to shoot (which is not that often). Scoop went 14/4 with only one turnover against Wisconsin. He shouldn’t turn the ball over a lot in this game because the pace of the game is not going to be too fast. Craft is more consistent, but what Scoop shows up?
Edge: Push
Shooting Guard: William Buford (OSU) vs. Brandon Triche
Buford is a knockdown shooter, although his percentages are down this year (35.6% from 3). He’s shot 37.5% (6/16) in the three tournament games. Buford will get some open looks in this game – SU will have to extend to him and try to make his shots tougher. Triche had his best game in a while (11 points in 19 minutes) against Wisconsin. He was aggressive attacking the basket and knocked down a three. Triche has a strength advantage so he’ll have to use that in the game tonight. I think Buford’s been more consistent and is a more explosive scorer.
Edge: Ohio St.
Small Forward: Lenzelle Smith, Jr. (OSU) vs. Kris Joseph
Smith is a glue guy – he only averages 6.3 ppg, but he put up 15 points and hit three 3′s against Cincinnati. Joseph has been cold for a while – his last good shooting night was at UCONN. He’s been getting to the line a lot recently (save for last game), averaging 6.6 free throw attempts over the last five games. Joseph must continue to stay aggressive and get to the line. The main problem is that Joseph tends to not perform his best in the big games – that must change today.
Edge: Syracuse
Power Forward: DeShaun Thomas (OSU) vs. C.J. Fair
Thomas is Ohio State’s second best player. He can score from anywhere on the court and shoots 36% from three and 74% from the foul line. Thomas needs to be kept in check in order for Syracuse to win the game. CJ finally played a good game after being cold for the last few – 15 points and 7 rebounds against Wisconsin, and once again, Fair displayed his great nose for the ball. Fair won’t have the athleticism advantage against Thomas that he did against Wisconsin. Thomas is a beast and has proven that game in and game out.
Edge: Ohio State
Center: Jared Sullinger (OSU) vs. Rakeem Christmas
Really?
Edge: Ohio State
Bench: Evan Ravenel, Sam Thompson, and Shannon Scott (OSU) vs. Dion Waiters, James Southerland, and Baye Keita
Ohio State only played 6 guys (for all intents and purposes) against Cincinnati and 7 guys against Gonzaga. If there’s any foul trouble for Ohio State, it could be a problem – especially if the fouls are to the big guys (Sullinger and Thomas). Dion’s been the most consistent SU player over the last five games and is the most explosive player on the court on either team. Southerland’s going to need to step up and hit some big shots, and Keita needs to take up space, alter shots, and rebound.
Edge: Syracuse
Coaching: Thad Matta (OSU) vs. Jim Boeheim
This is Thad’s third Elite 8. He has a record of 1-1, losing with Xavier and winning with Ohio State in 2007. Boeheim’s 3-1 in the Elite 8, but he’s also 15-7 in second round NCAA tournament games. Combined, that’s 18-8 when Boeheim coaches in the second game of an NCAA tournament bracket grouping (I don’t know what to call it, so I hope that makes sense). It’s very hard for unfamiliar teams to devise a solid gameplan to beat the zone with short preparation. Boeheim keeps it simple and lets his players play, which is the right thing to do here.
Edge: Syracuse
Prediction:
This game is going to be close. The offensive performances over the last three halves by Syracuse show that they have finally figured out their strengths – they’re playing their best offensive ball of the season right now. Ohio State has been up and down, both in this season and during the NCAA tournament. They have a better starting five, but their bench is unproven. All told, I think Ohio State pulls this out in a close one. OSU 71, Syracuse 68.
-GJ